A mind that aspires to immortality, whether it traces its beginnings to a mortal human being or is a completely artificial creation, must be prepared to adapt constantly from the inside.

Mind Children (1990)

Portrait of Hans Moravec

Hans Moravec

Roboticist, AI Researcher, and Futurist
Born: November 30, 1948

Hans Peter Moravec is an adjunct faculty member at the Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, USA. He is known for his work on robotics, artificial intelligence, writings on the impact of technology, and his development of techniques for use in computer vision determining the region of interest (ROI) in a scene. Moravec also is a futurist with many of his publications and predictions focusing on transhumanism.

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Intelligent Machines

How to Get There From Here and What to do Afterwards

Hans Moravec tackles the gap between AI’s early promise and its current reality. He pinpoints insufficient processing power as the key hurdle, preventing machines from mastering human-like skills. Moravec predicts a future where technological evolution outpaces its biological counterpart, as computers surpass human intelligence. This leap, he argues, could trigger a societal revolution, reshaping our world in ways we can barely imagine. His vision challenges us to consider the profound implications of truly intelligent machines.

Cover image for Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intgelligence

Mind Children

The Future of Robot and Human Intgelligence

Imagine attending a lecture at the turn of the twentieth century in which Orville Wright speculates about the future of transportation, or one in which Alexander Graham Bell envisages satellite communications and global data banks. Mind Children, written by an internationally renowned roboticist, offers a comparable experience: a mind-boggling glimpse of a world we may soon share with our artificial progeny. Filled with fresh ideas and insights, this book is one of the most engaging and controversial visions of the future ever written by a serious scholar.

Ripples and Puddles

Robotics pioneer Hans Moravec traces the evolution of artificial intelligence, contrasting the "shallow ripples" of reasoning programs with the "deep puddles" of perception systems. Though reasoning AIs currently outperform humans on some tasks, Moravec contends they cannot match the murky depths of the subconscious mind. Instead, he foresees a new generation of increasingly capable consumer robots, their lizard- then mammal-like brains modeled on biology. Passing through stages akin to evolution, Moravec argues market forces will drive these machines to one day exceed human intelligence.

Rise of the Robots

By 2050 robot "brains" based on computers that execute 100 trillion instructions per second will start rivaling human intelligence.

Simulation, Consciousness, Existence

Like organisms evolved in gentle tide pools, who migrate to freezing oceans or steaming jungles by developing metabolisms, mechanisms, and behaviors workable in those harsher and vaster environments, our descendants, able to change their representations at will, may develop means to venture far from the comfortable realms we consider reality into arbitrarily strange worlds. Their techniques will be as meaningless to us as bicycles are to fish, but perhaps we can stretch our common-sense-hobbled imaginations enough to peer a short distance into this odd territory.

When will Computer Hardware Match the Human Brain?

By the 2020s, affordable machines will match the intellectual capabilities of the human brain. Hans Moravec’s paper predicts the relentless improvement in computer hardware will eventually make this possible. He estimates the processing power and memory required for AI to emulate human intelligence and projects that advancements in technology will enable this within a few decades. This progress is likened to a flood of computational power that will surpass human abilities in various fields, necessitating humans to adapt to an increasingly automated world.

Will Spiritual Robots Replace Humanity by 2100?

Hans Moravec explores the future of robotics and AI, predicting a gradual evolution toward intelligent, autonomous machines. He discusses how robotics is lagging behind biotech and nanotech but will soon catch up, leading to household and industrial automation. Moravec envisions robots progressing from simple utility tasks to reasoning and cultural understanding, ultimately surpassing human intelligence. He argues that technological advancement is inevitable, driven by competition and incremental improvements, shaping a future where machines may replace humans.

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